Horizon source briefing
International Monetary Fund: 2025 Article IV consultation
Macroeconomic and fiscal baseline. This profile records the source as an evidence route for Bahrain · Country intelligence, not as proof of accessible demand.
What the source contributes
Macroeconomic and fiscal baseline. This profile records the source as an evidence route for Bahrain · Country intelligence, not as proof of accessible demand.
Macroeconomic and fiscal baseline.
Macro, fiscal, debt and sector baseline.
Real GDP growth: 2.6%. Reference period: 2024. Status in the Horizon dossier: Observed.
Non-hydrocarbon growth: 3.7%. Reference period: 2024. Status in the Horizon dossier: Observed.
Consumer-price inflation: 0.9%. Reference period: 2024. Status in the Horizon dossier: Observed.
Real GDP growth: 3.3%. Reference period: 2026 projection. Status in the Horizon dossier: Pre-conflict baseline.
Non-hydrocarbon growth: 3.5%. Reference period: 2026 projection. Status in the Horizon dossier: Pre-conflict baseline.
Government debt: 149.7%. Reference period: 2026 projection · share of GDP. Status in the Horizon dossier: Pre-conflict baseline.
Current-account balance: 3.5%. Reference period: 2026 projection · share of GDP. Status in the Horizon dossier: Pre-conflict baseline.
Fiscal balance: -10.6%. Reference period: 2026 pre-conflict projection · share of GDP. Status in the Horizon dossier: Pre-conflict baseline.
Official reserves: $6.3bn. Reference period: 2026 pre-conflict projection. Status in the Horizon dossier: Pre-conflict baseline.
Population: 1.59m. Reference period: 2024. Status in the Horizon dossier: Observed.
Dated macro and operating context
Horizon synthesis and use
- Open the original material, check its date and definitions, then connect the evidence to a named buyer, regulatory gate and company decision.
- Use this evidence to validate the bahrain country dossier decision before committing budget, selecting a route or approaching a counterparty.
- The value is retained with its period and status. It is not converted into a synthetic market-attractiveness score or treated as a company-specific forecast.
- This source supports part of the evidence base for “Bahrain current market status: economy, demand and execution”. Read it alongside the full Horizon synthesis, methodology and limitations.
- This source supports part of the evidence base for “Bahrain: market structure, access and operating dossier”. Read it alongside the full Horizon synthesis, methodology and limitations.
- This source supports part of the evidence base for “Energy & Cleantech in Bahrain: demand, access and execution dossier”. Read it alongside the full Horizon synthesis, methodology and limitations.
- This source supports part of the evidence base for “Digital, AI & Cybersecurity in Bahrain: independent market-entry study”. Read it alongside the full Horizon synthesis, methodology and limitations.
- This source supports part of the evidence base for “Construction & Infrastructure in Bahrain: demand, access and execution dossier”. Read it alongside the full Horizon synthesis, methodology and limitations.
- This source supports part of the evidence base for “Healthcare & Life Sciences in Bahrain: demand, access and execution dossier”. Read it alongside the full Horizon synthesis, methodology and limitations.
- This source supports part of the evidence base for “Food, Agritech & Water in Bahrain: demand, access and execution dossier”. Read it alongside the full Horizon synthesis, methodology and limitations.
- This source supports part of the evidence base for “Advanced Manufacturing in Bahrain: demand, access and execution dossier”. Read it alongside the full Horizon synthesis, methodology and limitations.
- This source supports part of the evidence base for “Logistics & Supply Chain in Bahrain: demand, access and execution dossier”. Read it alongside the full Horizon synthesis, methodology and limitations.
- This source supports part of the evidence base for “Financial Services & Fintech in Bahrain: independent market-entry study”. Read it alongside the full Horizon synthesis, methodology and limitations.
- This source supports part of the evidence base for “Tourism & Hospitality in Bahrain: demand, access and execution dossier”. Read it alongside the full Horizon synthesis, methodology and limitations.
- This source supports part of the evidence base for “Mining & Materials in Bahrain: demand, access and execution dossier”. Read it alongside the full Horizon synthesis, methodology and limitations.
- This source supports part of the evidence base for “Aerospace & Defence in Bahrain: demand, access and execution dossier”. Read it alongside the full Horizon synthesis, methodology and limitations.
- This source supports part of the evidence base for “Retail, Luxury & E-commerce in Bahrain: demand, access and execution dossier”. Read it alongside the full Horizon synthesis, methodology and limitations.
- This source supports part of the evidence base for “Education & Executive Learning in Bahrain: demand, access and execution dossier”. Read it alongside the full Horizon synthesis, methodology and limitations.
- This source supports part of the evidence base for “Fashion, Luxury & Creative Industries in Bahrain: demand, access and execution dossier”. Read it alongside the full Horizon synthesis, methodology and limitations.
- This source supports part of the evidence base for “Professional & Business Services in Bahrain: demand, access and execution dossier”. Read it alongside the full Horizon synthesis, methodology and limitations.
- This source supports part of the evidence base for “Environment, Circular Economy & Waste in Bahrain: demand, access and execution dossier”. Read it alongside the full Horizon synthesis, methodology and limitations.
Before using the evidence
Four questions that keep the conclusion honest
- 01What exact fact, definition or rule does the original source support?
- 02Is the publication date and reference period current enough for the decision?
- 03Does the evidence apply to the selected country, activity, buyer and company?
- 04What remains a Horizon inference or an untested commercial assumption?
Where Horizon integrates this source