Horizon source briefing
World Bank: evidence for “World Bank conflict scenario sharply lowers the 2026 Gulf growth outlook”
The June reference case forecasts 2.5% global growth, Brent averaging $94 a barrel and 4.0% inflation in 2026. It expects directly affected Gulf economies to move from 3.9% growth in 2025 to near zero, assuming the worst energy-route disruptions abate in July.
GCC · Regional macroeconomicsGCC regional evidenceGCC · Macroeconomics
What the source contributes
The June reference case forecasts 2.5% global growth, Brent averaging $94 a barrel and 4.0% inflation in 2026. It expects directly affected Gulf economies to move from 3.9% growth in 2025 to near zero, assuming the worst energy-route disruptions abate in July.
Downside macro scenario and transmission through energy, inflation, financing and trade.
Horizon synthesis and use
- These are conditional forecasts, not realised results or a uniform GCC score. Companies should maintain country- and route-specific base, downside and recovery cases for travel, supply chains, demand, financing and working capital, with triggers tied to observed shipping, aviation, insurance and energy conditions.
- Use the regional signal as context, then decompose it by country, sector, buyer and accessible route before drawing a commercial conclusion.
Before using the evidence
Four questions that keep the conclusion honest
- 01What exact indicator, unit, reference period and publication status does “World Bank: evidence for “World Bank conflict scenario sharply lowers the 2026 Gulf growth outlook”” report?
- 02Is the value observed, estimated, forecast or targeted, and has the series been revised?
- 03Does the indicator describe GCC · Regional macroeconomics, GCC regional evidence, GCC · Macroeconomics, or is it only country or regional context that cannot be relabelled as sector demand?
- 04The record was reviewed on 2026-09-01; what has World Bank changed or superseded since that date?