World Bank conflict scenario sharply lowers the 2026 Gulf growth outlook
Direct answer
The June reference case forecasts 2.5% global growth, Brent averaging $94 a barrel and 4.0% inflation in 2026. It expects directly affected Gulf economies to move from 3.9% growth in 2025 to near zero, assuming the worst energy-route disruptions abate in July.
- Editorial author
- Horizon Strategies
- Published
- Last verified in the editorial record
- Scope
- GCC · Macroeconomics
Limits and what this does not prove: Before commitment, verify: Subsequent World Bank updates and observed country-level output, inflation and financing data; Actual energy-route, aviation, shipping and insurance conditions; Company-specific triggers for moving from the base case to downside or recovery plans; Whether Brent, inflation and directly affected Gulf output remain inside the World Bank reference case or move toward its severe-disruption scenario.
What changed
The June reference case forecasts 2.5% global growth, Brent averaging $94 a barrel and 4.0% inflation in 2026. It expects directly affected Gulf economies to move from 3.9% growth in 2025 to near zero, assuming the worst energy-route disruptions abate in July.
Business impact
- The World Bank scenario connects disrupted energy routes with higher prices, inflation, borrowing costs and near-zero growth in directly affected Gulf economies.
- Because it is a scenario rather than an observed annual result, it is most useful as a downside-planning input, not as a current country score.
- Exposure differs by country, route and sector, requiring separate demand, travel, supply-chain and working-capital cases.
- The reference case assumes the worst energy disruptions abate in July; the 2026 oil-price, inflation and Gulf-growth projections must therefore be rechecked against observed route conditions before use.
Watch next
- Subsequent World Bank updates and observed country-level output, inflation and financing data
- Actual energy-route, aviation, shipping and insurance conditions
- Company-specific triggers for moving from the base case to downside or recovery plans
- Whether Brent, inflation and directly affected Gulf output remain inside the World Bank reference case or move toward its severe-disruption scenario
Source and editorial position
The facts above are attributed to World Bank and were checked by Horizon against the linked official record for this 2026-06-11 edition. Horizon's operational interpretation is separately identified and is not presented as a statement by the source.
Evidence and decision receipt
What is verified, what remains conditional and what the company can do next
Evidence retained
1
The original World Bank record is retained with its publication date and direct source route.
Decision context
GCC · Macroeconomics
Published evidence and Horizon interpretation remain visibly separated.
Unresolved before commitment
Before commitment, verify: Subsequent World Bank updates and observed country-level output, inflation and financing data; Actual energy-route, aviation, shipping and insurance conditions; Company-specific triggers for moving from the base case to downside or recovery plans; Whether Brent, inflation and directly affected Gulf output remain inside the World Bank reference case or move toward its severe-disruption scenario.
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